Reverse stress testing is used to identify and assess the stress scenarios most likely to cause a bank’s current business plan to become unviable. A reverse stress test starts with a specified outcome that challenges the viability of the bank. The analysis would then work backward (reverse engineered) to identify a scenario or combination of scenarios that could bring about such a specified outcome. The ultimate objective of reverse stress testing is to enable the banks to fully explore the vulnerabilities of their current business plan, take decisions that better integrate business and capital planning, and improve their contingency planning.

Banks are required to reverse stress test their business plan to failure i.e. the point at which the bank becomes unable to carry out its business activities due to the lack of market confidence. While doing this, they must identify a range of adverse circumstances which would cause their business plan to become unviable and assess the likelihood that such events could crystallize. In case the reverse stress testing reveal a risk of business failure that is inconsistent with the bank’s risk appetite or tolerance, it must take effective remedial measures to prevent or mitigate that risk. Banks should also document the entire process of reverse stress testing as a part of their stress testing framework.