EWS At Borrower Level from External Sources |
| Debt and collateral increase in other banks |
| Past-due or other NP classifications in other banks |
| Guarantor default |
| Debt in private central register (if any) |
| Legal proceeding |
External Sources | Bankruptcy |
| Changes in the company structure (e.g. merger, capital reduction) |
| External rating assigned and trends |
| Other negative information regarding major clients/counterparties of the debtor/suppliers |
EWS at a borrower level from internal sources |
| Negative trend in internal rating |
| Balances not appearing in current account / lower balances in Margin account / Negative own funds |
| Significant change in liquidity profile |
| Liabilities leverage (e.g. equity/total < 5% or 10%) |
| Number of days past due |
Companies | Number of months with any overdraft/overdraft exceeded |
| Profit before taxes/revenue (e.g. ratio < -1%) |
| Continued losses |
| Continued excess in commercial paper discount |
| Decrease of turnover |
| Reduction in credit lines related to trade receivables (e.g. year- on-year variation, 3m average/1y average) |
| Unexpected reduction in undrawn credit lines (e.g. undrawn amount/total credit line) |
| Negative trend in behavioral scoring |
| Negative trend in probability of default and/or internal rating |
| Mortgage loan installment > x time credit balance |
| Mortgage and consumer credit days past due |
| Decrease in the credit balance > 95% in the last 6 months |
| Average total credit balance < 0.05% of total debt balance |
| Forborne Exposures |
| Nationality and related historic loss rates |
Individuals / sole proprietors | Decrease in payroll in the last 3 months |
Unemployment |
| Early arrears (e.g. 5-30 days of past due, depending on portfolio/borrower types) |
| Reduction in bank transfers in current accounts |
| Increase of loan installment over the payroll ratio |
| Number of months with any overdraft exceeded |
| Negative trend in behavioral scoring |
| Negative trend in probability of default and/or internal rating |
EWS at a portfolio/segment level |
| Size distribution and concentration level |
Portfolio Distribution | Top X (e.g. 10) groups of connected borrowers and related risk indicators |
| Asset class distribution |
| Breakdown by industry, sector, collateral types, countries, maturities, etc. |
Risk parameters | PD/LGD evolution (overall and per segment) |
| PD/LGD forecasts and projections |
| Default loan |
| Volumes and trends of significant risk provisions on individual level |
NPL/restructuring status/foreclosure | NPL volume by category (>90 past due, etc.) |
| Restructuring volume and segmentation ( workout, forced prolongation, other modifications, deferrals, >90 past due, LLP) |
| Foreclosed assets on total loans |
| NPL ratio without foreclosed assets |
EWS by specific type of borrowers/sectors |
General | Customizable index data (GDP, stock markets, commodity prices, CDS prices, etc.) |
Real estate | Real estate-related indexes (segment, region, cities, rural areas, etc.) |
Rental market scores and expected market value changes |
Aviation | Airline-specific indicators (passenger load, revenue per passenger, etc.) |
Energy | Index data on regional alternative energy sources (e.g. wind quantities, etc.) |
Information-gathering system on potential technical or political risks on energy |