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Appendix 1: Samples of Early Warning Signals

No: 41033343 Date(g): 6/1/2020 | Date(h): 11/5/1441 Status: In-Force
The Following are illustrated for indicative purposes and are not intended to be prescriptive, as stated in the rules of Management of Problem Loans, banks should establish EWS that are suitable to their portfolio:
 
EWS At Borrower Level from External Sources
 Debt and collateral increase in other banks
 Past-due or other NP classifications in other banks
 Guarantor default
 Debt in private central register (if any)
 Legal proceeding
External SourcesBankruptcy
 Changes in the company structure (e.g. merger, capital reduction)
 External rating assigned and trends
 Other negative information regarding major clients/counterparties of the debtor/suppliers
EWS at a borrower level from internal sources
 Negative trend in internal rating
 Balances not appearing in current account / lower balances in Margin account / Negative own funds
 Significant change in liquidity profile
 Liabilities leverage (e.g. equity/total < 5% or 10%)
 Number of days past due
CompaniesNumber of months with any overdraft/overdraft exceeded
 Profit before taxes/revenue (e.g. ratio < -1%)
 Continued losses
 Continued excess in commercial paper discount
 Decrease of turnover
 Reduction in credit lines related to trade receivables (e.g. year- on-year variation, 3m average/1y average)
 Unexpected reduction in undrawn credit lines (e.g. undrawn amount/total credit line)
 Negative trend in behavioral scoring
 Negative trend in probability of default and/or internal rating
 Mortgage loan installment > x time credit balance
 Mortgage and consumer credit days past due
 Decrease in the credit balance > 95% in the last 6 months
 Average total credit balance < 0.05% of total debt balance
 Forborne Exposures
 Nationality and related historic loss rates
Individuals / sole proprietorsDecrease in payroll in the last 3 months
Unemployment
 Early arrears (e.g. 5-30 days of past due, depending on portfolio/borrower types)
 Reduction in bank transfers in current accounts
 Increase of loan installment over the payroll ratio
 Number of months with any overdraft exceeded
 Negative trend in behavioral scoring
 Negative trend in probability of default and/or internal rating
EWS at a portfolio/segment level
 Size distribution and concentration level
Portfolio DistributionTop X (e.g. 10) groups of connected borrowers and related risk indicators
 Asset class distribution
 Breakdown by industry, sector, collateral types, countries, maturities, etc.
Risk parametersPD/LGD evolution (overall and per segment)
 PD/LGD forecasts and projections
 Default loan
 Volumes and trends of significant risk provisions on individual level
NPL/restructuring status/foreclosureNPL volume by category (>90 past due, etc.)
 Restructuring volume and segmentation ( workout, forced prolongation, other modifications, deferrals, >90 past due, LLP)
 Foreclosed assets on total loans
 NPL ratio without foreclosed assets
EWS by specific type of borrowers/sectors
GeneralCustomizable index data (GDP, stock markets, commodity prices, CDS prices, etc.)
Real estateReal estate-related indexes (segment, region, cities, rural areas, etc.)
Rental market scores and expected market value changes
AviationAirline-specific indicators (passenger load, revenue per passenger, etc.)
EnergyIndex data on regional alternative energy sources (e.g. wind quantities, etc.)
Information-gathering system on potential technical or political risks on energy