Table 24 |
| Strong | Good | Satisfactory | Weak |
Financial strength |
Market conditions | Few competing suppliers or substantial and durable advantage in location, cost, or technology. Demand is strong and growing | Few competing suppliers or better than average location, cost, or technology but this situation may not last. Demand is strong and stable | Project has no advantage in location, cost, or technology. Demand is adequate and stable | Project has worse than average location, cost, or technology. Demand is weak and declining |
Financial ratios (eg debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), loan life coverage ratio, project life coverage ratio, and debt-to-equity ratio) | Strong financial ratios considering the level of project risk; very robust economic assumptions | Strong to acceptable financial ratios considering the level of project risk; robust project economic assumptions | Standard financial ratios considering the level of project risk | Aggressive financial ratios considering the level of project risk |
Stress analysis | The project can meet its financial obligations under sustained, severely stressed economic or sectoral conditions | The project can meet its financial obligations under normal stressed economic or sectoral conditions. The project is only likely to default under severe economic conditions | The project is vulnerable to stresses that are not uncommon through an economic cycle, and may default in a normal downturn | The project is likely to default unless conditions improve soon |
Financial structure |
Duration of the credit compared to the duration of the project | Useful life of the project significantly exceeds tenor of the loan | Useful life of the project exceeds tenor of the loan | Useful life of the project exceeds tenor of the loan | Useful life of the project may not exceed tenor of the loan |
Amortisation schedule | Amortising debt | Amortising debt | Amortising debt repayments with limited bullet payment | Bullet repayment or amortising debt repayments with high bullet repayment |
Political and legal environment |
Political risk, including transfer risk, considering project type and mitigants | Very low exposure; strong mitigation instruments, if needed | Low exposure; satisfactory mitigation instruments, if needed | Moderate exposure; fair mitigation instruments | High exposure; no or weak mitigation instruments |
Force majeure risk (war, civil unrest, etc.), | Low exposure | Acceptable exposure | Standard protection | Significant risks, not fully mitigated |
Government support and project's importance for the country over the long term | Project of strategic importance for the country (preferably export-oriented). Strong support from Government | Project considered important for the country. Good level of support from Government | Project may not be strategic but brings unquestionable benefits for the country. Support from Government may not be explicit | Project not key to the country. No or weak support from Government |
Stability of legal and regulatory environment (risk of change in law) | Favourable and stable regulatory environment over the long term | Favourable and stable regulatory environment over the medium term | Regulatory changes can be predicted with a fair level of certainty | Current or future regulatory issues may affect the project |
Acquisition of all necessary supports and approvals for such relief from local content laws | Strong | Satisfactory | Fair | Weak |
Enforceability of contracts, collateral and security | Contracts, collateral and security are enforceable | Contracts, collateral and security are enforceable | Contracts, collateral and security are considered enforceable even if certain non-key issues may exist | There are unresolved key issues in respect if actual enforcement of contracts, collateral and security |
Transaction characteristics |
Design and technology risk | Fully proven technology and design | Fully proven technology and design | Proven technology and design — start-up issues are mitigated by a strong completion package | Unproven technology and design; technology issues exist and/or complex design |
Construction risk |
Permitting and siting | All permits have been obtained | Some permits are still outstanding but their receipt is considered very likely | Some permits are still outstanding but the permitting process is well defined and they are considered routine | Key permits still need to be obtained and are not considered routine. Significant conditions may be attached |
Type of construction contract | Fixed-price date-certain turnkey construction engineering and procurement contract (EPC) | Fixed-price date-certain turnkey construction EPC | Fixed-price date-certain turnkey construction contract with one or several contractors | No or partial fixed-price turnkey contract and/or interfacing issues with multiple contractors |
Completion guarantees | Substantial liquidated damages supported by financial substance and/or strong completion guarantee from sponsors with excellent financial standing | Significant liquidated damages supported by financial substance and/or completion guarantee from sponsors with good financial standing | Adequate liquidated damages supported by financial substance and/or completion guarantee from sponsors with good financial standing | Inadequate liquidated damages or not supported by financial substance or weak completion guarantees |
Track record and financial strength of contractor in constructing similar projects. | Strong | Good | Satisfactory | Weak |
Operating risk |
Scope and nature of operations and maintenance (O & M) contracts | Strong longterm O&M contract, preferably with contractual performance incentives, and/or O&M reserve accounts | Long-term O&M contract, and/or O&M reserve accounts | Limited O&M contract or O&M reserve account | No O&M contract: risk of high operational cost overruns beyond mitigants |
Operator's expertise, track record, and financial strength | Very strong, or committed technical assistance of the sponsors | Strong | Acceptable | Limited/weak, or local operator dependent on local authorities |
Off-take risk |
(a) If there is a take-or-pay or fixed-price off-take contract: | Excellent creditworthiness of off-taker; strong termination clauses; tenor of contract comfortably exceeds the maturity of the debt | Good creditworthiness of off-taker; strong termination clauses; tenor of contract exceeds the maturity of the debt | Acceptable financial standing of off-taker; normal termination clauses; tenor of contract generally matches the maturity of the debt | Weak off-taker; weak termination clauses; tenor of contract does not exceed the maturity of the debt |
(b) If there is no take-or-pay or fixed-price off-take contract: | Project produces essential services or a commodity sold widely on a world market; output can readily be absorbed at projected prices even at lower than historic market growth rates | Project produces essential services or a commodity sold widely on a regional market that will absorb it at projected prices at historical growth rates | Commodity is sold on a limited market that may absorb it only at lower than projected prices | Project output is demanded by only one or a few buyers or is not generally sold on an organized market |
Supply risk |
Price, volume and transportation risk of feedstocks; supplier's track record and financial strength | Long-term supply contract with supplier of excellent financial standing | Long-term supply contract with supplier of good financial standing | Long-term supply contract with supplier of good financial standing — a degree of price risk may remain | Short-term supply contract or long-term supply contract with financially weak supplier — a degree of price risk definitely remains |
Reserve risks (e.g. natural resource development) | Independently audited, proven and developed reserves well in excess of requirements over lifetime of the project | Independently audited, proven and developed reserves in excess of requirements over lifetime of the project | Proven reserves can supply the project adequately through the maturity of the debt | Project relies to some extent on potential and undeveloped reserves |
Strength of Sponsor |
Sponsor's track record, financial strength, and country/sector experience | Strong sponsor with excellent track record and high financial standing | Good sponsor with satisfactory track record and good financial standing | Adequate sponsor with adequate track record and good financial standing | Weak sponsor with no or questionable track record and/or financial weaknesses |
Sponsor support, as evidenced by equity, ownership clause and incentive to inject additional cash if necessary | Strong. Project is highly strategic for the sponsor (core business — long-term strategy) | Good. Project is strategic for the sponsor (core business — long-term strategy) | Acceptable. Project is considered important for the sponsor (core business) | Limited. Project is not key to sponsor's long-term strategy or core business |
Security Package |
Assignment of contracts and accounts | Fully comprehensive | Comprehensive | Acceptable | Weak |
Pledge of assets, taking into account quality, value and liquidity of assets | First perfected security interest in all project assets, contracts, permits and accounts necessary to run the project | Perfected security interest in all project assets, contracts, permits and accounts necessary to run the project | Acceptable security interest in all project assets, contracts, permits and accounts necessary to run the project | Little security or collateral for lenders; weak negative pledge clause |
Lender's control over cash flow (eg cash sweeps, independent escrow accounts) | Strong | Satisfactory | Fair | Weak |
Strength of the covenant package (mandatory prepayments, payment deferrals, payment cascade, dividend restrictions…) | Covenant package is strong for this type of project | Covenant package is satisfactory for this type of project | Covenant package is fair for this type of project | Covenant package is Insufficient for this type of project |
| Project may issue no additional debt | Project may issue extremely limited additional debt | Project may issue limited additional debt | Project may issue unlimited additional debt |