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4.5.1
Although the time horizon used in PD estimation is one year, banks are expected to apply a longer time horizon in assigning ratings. A borrower rating should represent the bank’s assessment of the borrower’s ability and willingness to contractually perform despite adverse economic conditions or the occurrence of unexpected events. In other words, the Bank’s assessment should not be confined to risk factors that may occur in the next 12 months.
4.5.2
Banks may satisfy this requirement by:
basing rating assignments on specific, appropriate stress scenarios (see subsection 5.5 below); or taking appropriate consideration of borrower characteristics that are reflective of the borrower’s vulnerability to adverse economic conditions or unexpected events, without explicitly specifying a stress scenario. The range of economic conditions should be consistent with current conditions and those likely to occur over a business cycle within the respective industry/geographic region.
4.5.3
Given the difficulties in forecasting future events and the influence they will have on a particular borrower’s financial condition, banks should take a conservative view of projected information. Where limited data are available, banks should adopt a conservative bias to their analysis.
4.5.4
Banks should articulate clearly their rating approaches (see Annex B for details of rating approaches) in their credit policies, particularly how quickly ratings are expected to migrate in response to economic cycles and the implications of the rating approaches for their capital planning process. If a bank chooses a rating approach under which the impact of economic cycles would affect rating migrations, its capital management policy should be designed to avoid capital shortfalls in times of economic stress.
